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Reinventing 4 Wheels

Article by Peter Madden, Chief Executive, Forum for the Future. Green Futures magazine, January 2012 www.forumforthefuture.org/greenfutures

In the not too distant future, we'll sit back and relax as our cars drive themselves, automatically selecting the quickest route to avoid congestion and cut pollution.

Not that these cars will - strictly speaking be ours. Who would want the hassle and high cost of ownership, when we can choose the style of vehicle we need for our particular journey and pick it up at a convenient spot with a wave of our smart phone? Drop them off, and their electric motors recharge automatically - and wirelessley - as they await their next commander.

That's the vision. But why shold we expect something that has hardly changed at all over the last 100 years - a 4 wheeled metal box , with and internal combustion engine, which we sue for multiple purposes - to undergo such a dramatic transformation over the next decade?

There are some powerful trends pushing some changes. Rising petrol prices are biting hard, while low carbon policies are gaining teeth. Increased connectivity makes alternatives to traditional car ownership more attractive. And more and more of us are living in cities where space is at a premium, and where we are starting to see a layering of costs and obstacles to car use, driven by concerns about congestion and pollution.

However, the thing which will really accelerate change is that some in the auto industry are at last realising that the model of the past is doomed: that they must evolve or face extinction.

There are signals of change already out there. Surveys show that young people aspire to own the latest smartphone more than a car. Schemes that allow access to car-mobility for short periods, car clubs, are mushrooming, and big manufacturers are launching ever greener vehicles.

So, what are the sustainability impacts of rethinking the car? Clearly, the best outcome s of all for the environment would be reducing the need to travel, or promoting zero-carbon modes of transport, such as walking and cycling. But there are certainly enormous sustainability gains to be had from lower-emissions cars, more passengers per vehicle, and new economics of car ownership and use.

Questions, of course, remain. Will we move to these green alternatives quickly enough? And will the fast growing populations of the developing world, who still aspire to conventional models of car ownership, have to go through the same phase s as we did before they fall out of love with the automobile?

Peter Madden, Chief Executive, Forum for the Future.

January 17, 2012

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